Hi, thank you for the analysis! Could you share where you got the data from in the chart “Taobao and Tmall are now again growing GMV at double digits” and also for the later paragraph stating “for March, PDD's year-on-year growth fell to 13% versus Taobao and Tmall's 14%”.
You are welcome - those are both from the same source, an alt data product called Yinma. There are also other data vendors that provide similar services.
It looks like Yinma's GMV estimate for Q1 was pretty good indeed for Taobao/Tmall, but pretty far off for PDD (+21% estimated GMV vs +56% yoy revenue in "online marketing services and others"). At least if I'm looking at this correctly.
p.s. great writeups with original thinking, all 3!
Thank you for your kind words Frederik. To be fair to Yinma (no affiliation), we still do not fully know how accurate or off their data was: PDD did not disclose the GMV in their quarterly update.
At first glance that 21% intuitively seems strikingly low versus previous periods and competitors, but PDD's earnings releases have been corporate obfuscation par excellence - it rolls up two very different businesses, the China-serving PDD and ex-China Temu, and appears to split them by business model rather than geography.
The primary aim of this is very probably to hide its tracks against competitors in the hyper-competitive Chinese market, rather than deliberately attempting to keep investors in the dark, but unfortunately it has been equally effective at both.
Hi, thank you for the analysis! Could you share where you got the data from in the chart “Taobao and Tmall are now again growing GMV at double digits” and also for the later paragraph stating “for March, PDD's year-on-year growth fell to 13% versus Taobao and Tmall's 14%”.
Thank you!
You are welcome - those are both from the same source, an alt data product called Yinma. There are also other data vendors that provide similar services.
It looks like Yinma's GMV estimate for Q1 was pretty good indeed for Taobao/Tmall, but pretty far off for PDD (+21% estimated GMV vs +56% yoy revenue in "online marketing services and others"). At least if I'm looking at this correctly.
p.s. great writeups with original thinking, all 3!
Thank you for your kind words Frederik. To be fair to Yinma (no affiliation), we still do not fully know how accurate or off their data was: PDD did not disclose the GMV in their quarterly update.
At first glance that 21% intuitively seems strikingly low versus previous periods and competitors, but PDD's earnings releases have been corporate obfuscation par excellence - it rolls up two very different businesses, the China-serving PDD and ex-China Temu, and appears to split them by business model rather than geography.
The primary aim of this is very probably to hide its tracks against competitors in the hyper-competitive Chinese market, rather than deliberately attempting to keep investors in the dark, but unfortunately it has been equally effective at both.